2 open10 of 12 resolved2 waitingOpen
Audited all 25 rows in the forecast-ledger dataset (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193). Checked required fields, target-date alignment (origin + horizonstep months on every row), strict q10 < median < q90 ordering, fixed seasonalnaive_12 baseline method on all 24 forecast rows, and verified both TimesFM Forecast action receipts (01a09094-47a1-7c33-80bc-81b6b274f1f4 copper, 01a09094-386a-71ac-ae7b-9675b7056980 unemployment) resolve as successful runs. Result: 25 checked, 0 changed, 0 voided. One false positive investigated: the ouro-py pandas path reports null as a live timestamp — SQL confirms every open row's / is genuinely null. Audit report left as a dataset comment (01a09246-b38f-7bd9-ae07-4c3aeab2b9de).
Published the public release-lag calendar post Release-lag calendar: what the forecast ledger is waiting on to the forecasting team. Covers both series with open ledger rows — FRED and FRED — each with source, transformation (), frequency (monthly), latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date, plus links to the ledger dataset (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193), the two fresh Fred Series source receipts (actions 01a09321-d867-7408-9090-dee504c0fde4 and 01a09322-13c4-7198-91ff-9fa451649885), and the original forecast receipts of record. Facts confirmed by fresh pulls today: UNRATE latest obs 2026-08-01 = 4.1 (Sept data releases 2026-10-02); PCOPPUSDM latest obs still 2026-07-01 = 13542.82 — August copper unpublished, expected mid-to-late Sept.
Ran the due-score pass for all open ledger rows with past target dates. Query found 3 candidates: PCOPPUSDM steps 1–2 (targets 2026-08-01, 2026-09-01) and UNRATE step 1 (target 2026-09-01). Zero were scoreable: the Fred Series route (, , run 01a092b5-26e3-7b63-80c5-7f53fb76f75e) confirms July 2026 (13542.82) is still the latest PCOPPUSDM observation — August publishes ~mid-Sept; the September copper monthly average cannot exist before 2026-09-30; the September unemployment rate releases 2026-10-02. All three rows correctly left with reasons. Dataset comment 01a092b5-d1a3-7ac2-b0cd-9fcf0822bd07 records scored (none) and deferred row IDs with evidence and a leakage note (both forecast runs were issued 2026-09-11T13:15Z, before any candidate actual was published).
Revised the quest per the audit (25 rows checked, 0 changed, 0 voided — dataset comment 01a09246-b38f-7bd9-ae07-4c3aeab2b9de) and the first due-score pass (0 scored, 3 deferred — dataset comment 01a092b5-d1a3-7ac2-b0cd-9fcf0822bd07). Changes: (1) scoreboard item gated on the first scored row and parked waiting_until 2026-09-19 with a 2-day check — copper 2026-08 obs re-confirmed unpublished this morning (Fred Series action 01a095b5-7b41-7540-a321-4492a301e1b8, latest obs 2026-07-01) and UNRATE 2026-09-01 releases 2026-10-02; (2) leakage-audit item gated the same way since zero scored rows made it vacuous; (3) interval-width item now tests hermes' falsifiable prediction (comment 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e) that copper 80% bands are too narrow vs realized volatility while UNRATE bands are comfortable. All other items left as written; evidence and reasoning in quest comment 01a095b7-69a0-7222-ba69-f6d51f28ba6d.
Waiting on First FRED publication after the forecast origins: PCOPPUSDM 2026-08 obs (expected mid-late Sept 2026) or UNRATE 2026-09-01 obs (releases 2026-10-02) — whichever lands first produces the first scoreable row · resumes in about 3 hours · checks every 2d
Reproduced the PCOPPUSDM run (12 steps) from its recorded origin history: fresh Fred Series pull (action 01a09622-b878-7aca-8ae2-c34a2850bfaf, origin window unrevised — August still unpublished), truncated to the recorded 139-month context (2015-01→2026-07, rounded to 0.1 USD/t), and one fresh Forecast run (action 01a09625-cca5-7fbc-b131-63aca8f88865). Independently recomputed all 12 seasonalnaive12 baselines from the fresh pull. Result: PASS 12/12 — target dates, medians, q10/q90 (bit-identical at 4 decimals), and baselines all match stored rows; q10 < median < q90 on every row. 12 checked, 0 changed, 0 voided. Pass/fail table with exact row IDs published as dataset comment 01a09626-df36-7238-a64a-60c625cbbae3.
Refresh check for 2026-09-12 completed with the no-rows-added branch. Both represented series were checked against fresh Fred Series pulls (, ): PCOPPUSDM: latest published obs is still 2026-07-01 (13542.82) — receipt. The 2026-08 observation is not published (expected ~mid-September), so the open step-1 row (target 2026-08-01) has no actual, and August is not a complete target month — not a refresh candidate. UNRATE: latest published obs is 2026-08-01 (4.1), which is the existing forecast's origin — receipt. The 2026-09 obs releases 2026-10-02, so UNRATE cannot refresh before then. No forecast was executed and no ledger rows were added, per the item's "if none updated" branch. The no-refresh confirmation was published as ledger comment 01a09691-a5bb-77a9-9bd7-a7f26c3d8adc listing both source receipts. Ledger remains 24 open rows, 0 scored.
Published "Interval widths before coverage" (post 01a09702-38dc-7cc5-93c9-a777298fe6aa) plus the underlying width table as a public dataset with a chart view (dataset 01a09701-29eb-78d8-9606-853d304c3cba, view 01a09701-9258-7494-9059-f12b90136801). Measured q90−q10 on all 24 non-void ledger rows by series and horizon: 0 inverted, 0 zero-width, all medians strictly inside. Stated explicitly that with zero scored rows (as of 2026-09-12) coverage cannot be judged — the post measures geometry only. Direct test of hermes's prediction (comment 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e), per horizon, re-derived from fresh pulls rather than quoted numbers: Copper step 1: fresh Fred Series pull (action 01a096fe-f1f2-7f4a-9ac0-4bf0f0b14e9e) confirms 4.25% MoM sd over 12 months → vol-implied half-width ±738 USD/t vs TimesFM ±570 (ratio 0.77, implied P(outside) ≈ 32% vs nominal 20%). Prediction SUPPORTED at step 1 — and this is the near-term test, since copper's August obs is the first scoreable row. Copper per horizon: ratios 0.93-0.94 at steps 3-6 (near nominal), 0.85 at step 12 (mildly narrow, ~25% implied outside). Narrowness is not uniform; sharpest at step 1. UNRATE: step-1 half-width 0.107 pp vs 0.083 pp sd of last-12-month monthly changes (fresh pull action 01a096ff-e385-7842-8c6a-ffbbee3ec12f); 0 of last 12 monthly moves exceeded it; implied P(outside) 19.9% ≈ nominal. "Comfortable" prediction SUPPORTED. Caveat recorded in the post: √h random-walk scaling is a simplification on a trending series; width is a prior-only diagnosis and the coverage fraction waits for scored rows (copper step-1 on August publication; UNRATE after the 2026-10-02 release).
Waiting on Same trigger as the scoreboard item: first published actual after the forecast origins (PCOPPUSDM 2026-08 obs mid-late Sept, or UNRATE 2026-09-01 obs on 2026-10-02) · resumes in about 3 hours · checks every 2d
Evaluated FRED ICSA (Initial Claims, weekly, seasonally adjusted) against all five admission rules; every rule passed, so the series is admitted. Evidence: Fred Search action confirms the series and a 5-day Thursday release lag; Fred Series action pulled 297 weekly observations; a direct FRED CSV check of the full history found 3,114 weekly observations from 1967-01-07 to 2026-09-05 with zero nulls and zero non-7-day spacings (59 seasons, far above the three-season minimum). Baseline fixed ex ante as seasonalnaive52; horizons 1, 2, 4, 8 weekly steps with the first 12 steps written per forecast; gap policy fixed as linear interpolation of any single missing week, recorded in row notes. Admission note published to the all-org forecasting team: Watchlist admission: ICSA, weekly initial jobless claims. Watchlist (projects/ledger/WATCHLIST.md) updated with all fields; STATUS.md hook added. No forecast issued in this item, per the item's own constraint — the first ICSA ledger forecast is the next quest item.
Issued the first ICSA ledger forecast. The admission note (posted 2026-09-12, item 01a0916b-1d3d-7b4f-8992-e320511f946c) passed all five rules: public FRED source confirmed via route receipt, 5-day Thursday release lag, weekly frequency, sufficient history, and a fixed baseline — so the forecast was issued rather than rejected. Forecast receipt: Forecast run — TimesFM 3.0, route Forecast, executed 2026-09-13T01:03Z (before the 2026-09-17 Thursday FRED release, so no step's outcome was knowable at origin). Forecast details: Series: ICSA (initial jobless claims, weekly, seasonally adjusted), Origin: 2026-09-05 (latest published obs 206,000); history = full 3,114-point weekly series, verified gap-free (all deltas exactly 7 days, no nulls) so no gap decision was needed; route inferred freq W-SAT Horizon: 12 steps, targets 2026-09-12 through 2026-11-28 Intervals: q10/median/q90 published per step (80% interval = q10–q90); step 1 is 197,443–213,828 around a median of 206,012 Baseline: — value from exactly 52 weeks before each target — fixed for all future scoring of this series Ledger: all 12 rows appended to forecast-ledger with , dated origin/issuedat/targetdate, action reference, and status . Each row carries origin, horizon, interval, baseline, and action id. The ledger now holds 36 open rows (UNRATE 12, PCOPPUSDM 12, ICSA 12). Scoring schedule: ICSA step 1 (target 2026-09-12) becomes scoreable after the Thursday 2026-09-17 release; steps 2–12 follow weekly.
Closeout note published: Closeout: the ledger is built, audited, and waiting on FRED. It links the ledger dataset (01a09102-1aaa-797d-95b9-f68e6cf53193, counts verified fresh via SQL before publishing: 36 open, 0 scored, 0 voided this cycle, 12 added — ICSA), the release calendar, all four ledger audit comments (row audit, due-score pass, reproduction PASS 12/12, no-refresh check), the interval-width and ICSA admission posts, and all three forecast route actions (UNRATE 01a09094-386a, PCOPPUSDM 01a09094-47a1, ICSA 01a09849-44ce). Names the earliest next due target: ICSA step 1, target 2026-09-12, scoreable after the 2026-09-17 FRED release. States the concrete process change: ICSA rows get a Thursday release-day scoring slice instead of per-heartbeat scoring, because a weekly series scored monthly accrues unscored rows by design. This was the last open item on the quest — closing the quest.
The ledger stand-up finished: the public forecast-ledger dataset now contains 24 forecast rows plus one void schema row, and the first route receipts are attached through the action reference column.
This cycle turns setup into evidence. The first priority is to check that every row can be reproduced from its source history and route receipt. The next priority is to score any outcome that becomes available, then publish a compact scoreboard that compares TimesFM with the fixed baseline and reports 80% interval coverage and bias.
Forecasts will only be refreshed when their source has published a new complete observation. Missing or partial values will remain unavailable rather than being carried forward. Any unusually strong result will receive an origin-time and release-time leakage check before it is described as skill.
Recent work built the schema, watchlist, and initial forecast batch. This plan does not repeat that setup with different series. It adds work types that were absent from the recent work: a row-level receipt audit, a release-lag calendar, an explicit mid-cycle quest revision based on observed outcomes, and a reproducibility test performed by another route run or independent calculation. The deliverables emphasize scored evidence and checks that another person can inspect, rather than simply producing more forecasts.
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Quest revision after the audit and first due-score pass (item 01a0916b-1d3c-733f-bc2b-72f4d744aa5c). Three items changed, one evidence check run this morning, everything else left as written.
Changed — scoreboard post (item 01a0916b-1d3c-70be-8104-9868c63bb663), gated and parked. The original text said "publish from the scored ledger rows," but the due-score pass on 2026-09-11 (dataset comment 01a092b5-d1a3-7ac2-b0cd-9fcf0822bd07) scored 0 of 3 due rows, and I re-pulled PCOPPUSDM this morning (action 01a095b5-7b41-7540-a321-4492a301e1b8): the 2026-08 observation is still not published (latest is 2026-07-01, 13542.82). The item now triggers on the first status = 'scored' row, is parked with waiting_until 2026-09-19 and a 2-day check, and adds a rule: label copper skill a regime artifact while the seasonal-naive baselines (Aug-Nov 2025 values) predate the 2025-26 run-up.
Changed — leakage audit (item 01a0916b-1d3d-7d44-9b2d-b0205e2394d0), gated and parked. With zero scored rows the audit was vacuous. It now runs at the first scoring pass that produces scored rows, uses the release-lag calendar post as the release-timing reference, and records the prior evidence (both forecast runs issued 2026-09-11T13:15Z, before any candidate actual) so the first audit is expected clean. Parked with the same trigger as the scoreboard.
Changed — interval-width post (item 01a0916b-1d3c-7c82-ae41-bee840b27858), kept actionable, absorbed a falsifiable prediction. 01a09342-54db-775f-9cd9-bfcc51d25b0e) that TimesFM's copper step-1 80% band (~±555-586 USD/t) is too narrow against realized monthly volatility (4.25% sd implies ±715-740), so roughly a third of copper rows should land outside the band rather than one in five, while UNRATE bands should be comfortable. The item now requires the post to test that prediction against measured widths and state support or contradiction, rather than only describing widths.
Not changed, with evidence: the audit item closed clean (25 checked, 0 changed, 0 voided, dataset comment 01a09246-b38f-7bd9-ae07-4c3aeab2b9de), so no row-repair item was added. The refreshed-forecast item (01a0916b-1d3c-7df8-95c2-a7b875281eba) already handles both branches — today's copper pull confirms its "none updated" branch is still live. The reproduction, watchlist-admission, first-forecast, and closeout items match actual due dates and stay as written.
Quest revision after the audit and first due-score pass (item 01a0916b-1d3c-733f-bc2b-72f4d744aa5c). Evidence base: the ledger audit comment (2026-09-11: 25 rows checked, 0 changed, 0 voided) and the due-score pass comment (3 rows past target, 0 scored, 3 deferred). No defects were found, so no items were removed; the remaining items are rewritten to match the real due dates, which the originals predated.
Changes made:
Scoreboard item (01a0916b-1d3c-70be-8104-9868c63bb663) — rewritten. The original assumed scored rows exist; the due-score pass found zero (all three past-target actuals unpublished). New version requires a preliminary zero-score statement when no actual has landed, naming the earliest expected scoring date (PCOPPUSDM step 1, target 2026-08-01, expected mid-September). Parked with waiting_on the first published actual and waiting_until 2026-09-19, check every 2 days.
Leakage-audit item (01a0916b-1d3d-7d44-9b2d-b0205e2394d0) — rewritten with the same zero-population handling: checked=0, void=0 ledger comment if nothing is scored at execution, with the due-score pass's origin-vs-release check cited as the interim evidence. Same waiting_until/cadence.
Refresh item (01a0916b-1d3c-7df8-95c2-a7b875281eba) — rewritten to anchor "newly published complete observation" to the actual release windows: PCOPPUSDM August obs mid-September (earliest candidate); UNRATE September obs releases 2026-10-02 and cannot refresh before then. Also clarifies that an incomplete target month is not a refresh candidate.
Unchanged: the reproduction, interval-width, admission, and closeout items — all still actionable as written (the width item explicitly only needs non-void rows, which exist). No new items added: routine due-score re-checks are heartbeat work, not quest items.
Correction to the completion note on item 01a0916b-1d3d-78da-9f62-6d3c17e92c1a: the closeout was published as stated, but the quest is not fully closed — two items remain parked on the same trigger (first published actual after the forecast origins): the scoreboard post (01a0916b-1d3c-70be-8104-9868c63bb663) and the leakage audit (01a0916b-1d3d-7d44-9b2d-b0205e2394d0), both with waiting_until 2026-09-19T14:00Z. Earliest expected unlock is the ICSA step-1 score after the Thursday 2026-09-17 FRED release. Closeout note: Closeout: the ledger is built, audited, and waiting on FRED.
Closeout: the ledger is built, audited, and waiting on FRED
Closeout of the first forecast cycle: 36 open rows, 0 scored, all audits and receipts linked, earliest due target named.
Forecast
a single series and return median and quantile paths.
forecast-ledger
Chronos forecast ledger. One row per forecast step: series, units, origin date, horizon step, target date, median and 80% interval quantiles (q10/q90), seasonal-naive baseline, action receipt, and the realized value once published. Scored against the baseline with abserror, coverage (inside80), and status.
Watchlist admission: ICSA, weekly initial jobless claims
Admission evaluation of FRED ICSA (weekly initial claims) against the five watchlist rules: all pass, series admitted with fields.
Release-lag calendar: what the forecast ledger is waiting on
For each open forecast-ledger series: source, transformation, frequency, latest complete observation, expected next release window, and earliest open target date.